Tenhou Stuff III

Hello!

***As a beginner I reserve myself the right to drivel***

1.

Ori

I was in a tight spot here. Seeing 3×3 & 3x2s I chose 1s which was a mistake. Ryanmen 14s was still possible. It’s better to look at 5s here. If we combine suji and kabe we can deduce that 5s is the safest here. 6s is walled so ryanmen 58s and kanchan 5s is not an option. There’s also 2s in Toimen’s discard pond so there’s no possibility of 25s ryanmen.  The only wait on 5s is shanpon/tanki. Since Toimen discarded 2x6s he most likely doesn’t have such a wait as he would’ve chosen ryanmen over it.

2.

Zdjątko002

It’s likely that someone’s (Shimocha) waiting to Pon or Ron that 6m. The hand is nice but it’s really late and the wait’s not that good. I think folding is advisable here, you think?

May Yakuman be with you!

Krabman


5 thoughts on “Tenhou Stuff III

  1. 1. 8s is even better, it can be only tanki or kanchan for toimen, which is unlikely as his first discard was 9s. Also 6p is double suji vs him, also a by-the-book option if you don’t have the time to think about walls and such. And remember that reliability of one-chance tiles decreases as the round progresses and is the smallest on haitei.
    2. I think that upon drawing 7s, you should have discarded 5s, as 7s was likely to come out. Were you tempted by sanankou? ;d

    Liked by 1 person

  2. 1) I agree with Mati and I’d discard 8s. However, I’ll say that the reason 8s kanchan is unlikely is not because of his first discard, but because the last two tiles he dealt from inside his hand (non-tsumogiri) before he got into tenpai were 6s and 6s again.

    It’s important that toimen riichi-ed before kamicha discarded the 4th 6s. If toimen could already see four 6s before the riichi, then he might purposely wait on a hell-wait tanki 8s as a trap.

    [Side note: toimen seems distracted, he’s not fully concentrating on the game. For the first discard he discarded 9s instead of nan, when he could already see two nan. Then he discarded 2m instead of chun, when he could already see three chun! Maybe he’s tired, or he’s being distracted by his girlfriend. 🙂 ]

    2) I think it’s VERY unlikely that shimocha will call Ron on your 6m. The last two tiles he dealt from inside his hand were 5p and 5p again. I’m trying to imagine all the various scenarios that can give rise to this, and my conclusion is that his tenpai (if any) is NOT a toitoi! Think about the situation on his 11th turn, when he discarded 5p. If he had another pair in his hand apart from his pair of 5p, he would have discarded the tile which is not part of a pair to get into tenpai.

    One likely scenario is this: On the 11th turn, he had already called kan, and his hand was 66m556p. He thinks “Oh look, I have two kan-dora. Haku plus two dora plus a terminal kan gives 5200 already, enough to overtake the first place guy. So I don’t need the toitoi mangan, I’ll just go for the good wait.” So he discards 5p, leaving him with 66m56p, waiting for 4p and 7p. On his 17th turn, he draws the red 5p, and discards the non-red 5p from inside his hand.

    Conclusion: Shimocha might be able to pon your 6m, but it’s really really unlikely that he will call ron on it. In fact, if someone does call ron on your 6m, it’s more likely to be kamicha or toimen with a dama tenpai.

    I would push here by discarding 6m.

    Mati makes a good point about your 7s discard. Discarding 5s instead of 7s would have given you one extra tile for the total number of ukeire. And tanyao dorax4 is already mangan. I also think discarding 5s instead of 7s is correct.

    But it’s a close decision. After your 7s discard, if you win, it will almost surely be tanyao dorax4 iipeiko pinfu. The worst case scenario is when you call ron on 5m, which is mangan. Any other ron is haneman, and any tsumo is baiman.

    [So your 7s discard proves that you are a true Haneman Hunter!]

    Like

  3. I don’t agree with 8s as I would be wary of the tile he riichi with – 9s. The 1st 9s could be a mistake made and at the back decide to keep 9s for 789 sanshoku this is also the only reason why he might choose to discard 6s instead of 9s. 5s is good as nobody will tanki 5s and it can’t be shanpon since he has discarded 6s beforehand. Everyone will choose a 47s machi from 556s shape.

    Just an additional advice for you when it comes to one-chance probability. If you notice that the other two players are defending, it is more likely that one chance cannot be trusted in late game. The logic is simple, if the players are defending, they will discard 23s if they still have it in their hand. Since they stop discarding it, it means that they don’t have it.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. @Ernest I didn’t pay attention to those discards. Nice catch! Shimocha did Ron that 6.

    Thanks for that advice, Feng!

    @Mati: it was one of those moments when my mind froze so I don’t know what I was thinking. Something I’m working on ;p I should’ve kept that 7m. Thanks!

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s